4. LEARN HOW THE PUBLICITY MACHINE WORKS

Unfortunately, Oscar winners are often chosen not because of the quality of work. Publicity and marketing campaigns play huge roles in who gets noticed and who doesn't, and studios will pour millions of dollars into Oscar campaigns. Why? Because it is often thought that major Oscar wins will translate into higher box office receipts or rental grosses, as well as giving the studio greater prestige and bragging rights. So many studios will do anything to get their film to win.

The master of the Oscar marketing campaign is Miramax. A subdivision of Disney, Miramax releases Disney's art-house film collection, which usually consists of smaller-budgeted but well-reviewed films. Recent examples have been Shakespeare in Love, Life Is Beautiful, Good Will Hunting, and Pulp Fiction. They go CRAZY for this Oscar crap. Mirimax's reputation is based upon its quality movies, and it advertises its quality by citing its multiple Oscar nominations and wins. For this reason, Mirimax spends obscene amounts of money on its Oscar campaigns. It will send copies of all of its movies to every single Academy member (even movies that are still in theaters), and send voters fancy publicity "tokens" (read: bribes). Anything that has Miramax attached to it must be taken seriously, and if you can't decide between two candidates, just go with the Miramax candidate. Even if you haven't heard much about the film, all of the voters have.

Not many other studios have this kind of money to put directly into their Oscar campaigns. They're more worried about putting their money into making more movies. As a rule of thumb, the more you've seen a nominee on a talk show or magazine cover, the more likely it is that the studio has put a lot of money behind into an Oscar campaign.

OK, so you now know about the categories and how the winners are chosen, you know about research, you know about the historical trends, and you know about the Miramax publicity monster. What does this all have to do with winning the Oscar pool? Well, taking everything into consideration, you now have a great idea of who to bet on. Some rules will contradict each other, but we never said we were gonna guarantee you a win. Where would the fun in that be?

To summarize…

BEST PICTURE
It has lots of buzz
It's the film with the most nominations.
It takes place in the past.
It came out after September.
It was nominated for best director.
The studio that made it has lots of money.

BEST ACTOR/SUPPORTING ACTOR/ACTRESS/SUPPORTING ACTRESS
It's an actor/actress with buzz.
(S)he had a disability or flashy quirk.
(S)he is making a comeback.

BEST DIRECTOR
(S)he has a film nominated in best picture.
(S)he has buzz.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN/SET DESIGN
It takes place in the past.
It takes place in another country.
It's as flashy and gaudy as possible.

BEST SONG
You heard it the most on the radio.

BEST SOUND/SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
It was the loudest.
It made the most money of all the nominees.

For all the others (cinematography, editing, special effects, etc.), just follow what the Internet boards have been saying, and where you feel the buzz lies.

Phew! Our job is now done. We hope you win loads of money and make your friends cry. Remember that the money is usually won by guessing the "smaller" categories, so don't discount those. We'll check back with you after the Oscars, but until then, the balcony is closed.